It could happen again.
Harrison Burton’s unlikely victory in last Saturday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway caused consternation around the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff bubble.
The same thing could happen in the “last-chance qualifier” for the Cup Playoffs—Sunday’s Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway (6 p.m. ET on USA, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Thirteen drivers — Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Austin Cindric, Daniel Suarez, Alex Bowman and Burton — already have secured Playoff spots by winning at least one regular-season race.
That leaves three berths currently available on points, and Martin Truex Jr. is the odds-on favorite to secure one of them. Truex comes to Darlington 58 points above the current Playoff cut line, needing just 19 points (an 18th-place finish without stage points) to advance to the postseason.
But Truex knows all too well that’s no guarantee.
“The challenge is that it’s a long race, a lot of pit stops and a lot of chances for things to go wrong,” said the driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, who announced he will retire from full-time racing at the end of the season.
“Track position is obviously really important. To go through 13 sets of tires or whatever it is, and track position and what it means there, and to keep track position, it’s tough to stay up front and be consistently really strong. It’s tough to do there, and we hope we can do that on Sunday night.”
Similarly, Truex’s teammate, Ty Gibbs can clinch a berth on points by scoring 38 points in the grueling race.
Chris Buescher currently is the last driver in a Playoff-eligible position, 21 points above the cut line. Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain are on the wrong side of the bubble, 21 and 27 points below the cutoff, respectively.
A victory by another currently winless driver—perhaps Kyle Busch or two-time Southern 500 winner Erik Jones—could spell the end of the Playoff hopes of all three of those bubble drivers.
Chastain nevertheless approaches the race with optimism. On May 10, he won a NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series race at the Lady in Black.
The driver of the No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet first gained national recognition with a breakout Xfinity Series performance at Darlington in 2018, when he won the pole and the first two stages and led 90 laps in Chip Ganassi’s No. 42 Chevrolet.
“We need to gather a lot of points Sunday night and win,” Chastain said. “The math is the math. If we have a fast car, that will obviously increase our chances. I love Darlington, so I can’t think of a better place to be going this weekend.
“We’ll all know Sunday night if I’m in the Playoffs or not. No matter what, though, we’re going to keep working hard and going for wins the rest of the season.”
At the other end of the spectrum, Sunday’s race will settle a three-driver battle for the NASCAR Cup Series’ Regular Season Championship and the bonus of 15 Playoff points that goes with it.
Tyler Reddick leads Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott by 17 and 18 points, respectively. Reddick can lock Larson and Elliott out of the title by scoring 44 points on Sunday, which would require him to collect a minimum of nine stage points if he doesn’t win the race (four stage points if he does).
Larson, the 2021 NASCAR Cup champion, is the defending winner of the Crown Jewel race.
“I love racing at Darlington, and it was cool to get that first (Cup) win there last year in the Southern 500,” Larson said. “We’re 17 points down, but we’re going to race hard for stage points and hopefully be able to battle for the Regular Season Championship at the end of the race.”
Source: Reid Spencer | NASCAR Wire Service
